A Persistent Push

There is a lot of talk about the future of space exploration within the industry and public space in the United States right now, as well as the rest of the world. As an avid fan and participant in this industry (as well as a US Taxpayer) I would like to share some thoughts on where I see space exploration going and what I see it doing. I will do so by considering a non-standard frame of mind for thinking about space exploration, then going into the actual reasons for it as I see them, and finally present a general plan for the second 50 years of spaceflight.

So, let us attempt to define a frame of reference:

Think about a grain, a single grain of sand on a long sandy beach.

Now think of a spec on that grain of sand, a micro-spec.

Now, take everything you’ve ever known, ever seen, everyone you’ve ever met and all your experiences and shrink them onto that spec, on that grain of sand, on that long sandy beach.

That is humanity’s current place in this Universe.

This is something we have measured and observed, as real as measuring wood to frame a house.

Now that we have a frame of reference to think about space exploration, let us go into four major reasons for space exploration: Survival, Economy, Technology, and Discovery.

Survival: We have all heard about the threat of asteroids or the Sun going into a red giant, but what about all the other threats that are sure to exist? Rogue planets traveling between the stars that would probably be difficult to find. Ones that could disrupt the orbit of the Earth and greatly affect us. What about gamma ray bursts or some other unknown threat? And here is a word for you: Dinosaurs. Do we really want to end up like them? Do we care about our children’s children’s children? Now, I do not wish to be a fear monger, just a realist. I claim to be a realist because we already thought about how vast this Universe is; thus, the fact is that humanity, whether it realizes it or not, is still fighting for something very basic: Survival.

Economy: Currently, the Western nations and more and more the rest of the world are enjoying great benefits from being able to harness technology and resources to improve the lives of their people. Think of all the resources brought to bear in order to supply the 6+ billion people on this planet. If we keep growing in population the economy will need to keep expanding, and new technology and resources will be required. The economy is currently built on the resources of one planet. Think of what life would be like with the resources of multiple worlds. Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying we should go and strip-mine the Universe, but there are things we can think about. For example, what if one day 90% of the heavy manufacturing occurred on asteroids? Wouldn’t that help Earth? Wouldn’t that help humanity? Obviously, that’s a long way off, but it is something that could provide for a greater economy on Earth, as well as a healthier Earth. It is within our grasp should we so choose.

Technology: The opportunities and challenges of space exploration are vast. Many of which we don’t even know about yet. Whether it be new medical technologies designed for the needs of spaceflight, improved efficiencies for power systems, or improved fertilizers for converting lunar regolith into soil for crops, new technologies would help improve the lives of people around the world. Having specific goals for people to work towards helps focus research. The spin-offs of this research will drive our economy and further improve life here on Earth in ways we can’t imagine. Just look at all the ways spaceflight has changed the world already from GPS, to MRI technologies, to water recycling technologies. The technology derived from spaceflight is vast. Lets keep advancing our technology.

Discovery: This is perhaps the most important reason. Discovery drives technology, which in turn drives our economy and provides better odds for humanity’s survival. Perhaps the main reason Discovery is important is that it inspires the next generation. It motivates them to make their own discoveries in the future. Look at all of the things that we have discovered just in the past century; flight, nuclear power, organisms existing in places we never thought possible, proof of planets around other stars, etc. These discoveries have just been from our little spec on our grain of sand. Space exploration takes the collection of human knowledge thus far and seeks to expand it through Discovery.

I could go on for each of these subjects but I think you get the idea. So if these reasons justify space exploration, how do we go? The following is a potential general plan and timeline for the next 50 years of spaceflight. Granted this will require more investment in spaceflight, but if I’ve convinced you that we need to go, then lets go.

The Next 50 Years

Space is more vast than anything else we know of; thus, space exploration should not be designed as a 1 shot thing. It takes long range planning, goals, and commitment. It will take an exploration architecture, one that continually builds capability providing the logistics that will allow us to go farther and faster as time progresses. I believe this is the path that NASA and other space agencies are trying to follow. Going along with this theme I propose the following.

Summary of Timeline:

LEO/ISS – Present thru 2020

The Moon – Planning: Present-2030; Sorties 2020-2022; Base Construction: 2022-2032

NEO – Planning: 2022-2028; Sorties: 2027-2030: Base Construction: A Commercial Exercise

Mars – Planning: 2022-2045; Sorties: 2032-2035; Base Construction: 2035-2050;

Europa & Other Destinations: Planning: 2035-????;Sorties 2045-2050; Base Construction 2055-????

Notes:

• After a basic base has been constructed it would be passed over to the commercial sector. The commercial sector would be allowed to be bid on pieces of a base, but no base would be allowed to have a single commercial entity running it unless multiple bases existed. A government presence would be maintained on the Moon.
• Robotic probes and communication probes would be sent ahead of the human missions to do initial surveys and provide logistics support.
• It is my belief that space exploration should be a human endeavor, not just a national endeavor.

Timeline :

LEO/ISS :

• Time: Present through 2020
• Reasons:
  • Technology: human health, radiation protection, better materials, etc.
  • The ISS is finally ready for 6 person crews after millions of man hours and tons of resources applied to it. Let us use it through 2020 to it’s full capability.
  • Use it as a destination to help develop the commercial sector’s capability for reaching LEO in human rated craft as a first step in economic expansion.

The Moon:

• Time: Planning: Present-2030; Sorties by 2020; Base Construction 2022-2032
• Reasons:
  • Technology: insitu resource utilization, replacement part manufacturing, rocket fuel processing, power efficiency; mobility tests, off Earth mining, off Earth farming, long term off Earth construction, recycling, geology, advanced propulsion demonstration, etc
  • Technology & Economy: Develop an architecture that allows and tests off Earth surface exploration and construction.
  • Economy: Building a Moon base offers another destination for commercial spaceflight and the eventual opening up of the Moon’s resources to Earth would prove beneficial to the economy.
  • Discovery: hands on geology, minerals
• Requirements:
  • Robotic scouting in conjunction with human missions.
  • Human testing of equipment and check out of possible sites for a permanent base would be good objectives for the sorties from 2020-2022.
  • A robust flight schedule in order to both supply the base with resources and rotate people.
• Thoughts:
  • A lunar base is not only a good idea for testing new equipment but allows for greater scientific resources and the next stepping stone to hand off to commercial enterprises.
  • A lunar base three days away is a good test bed for procedures and craft designed to eventually go to Mars.
  • Radiation shielding techniques will be vital to humanity’s push beyond Earth.
• Long Range Thoughts:
  • A lunar base that can eventually develop into a full spacecraft manufacturing base could allow greater exploration of the star system and beyond.
  • With the lighter gravity of the Moon, could we dome larger craters and grow crops that we then transfer to those areas most in need on Earth? Could that become economically viable?

Near Earth Objects (NEO’s):

• Time: Sorties: Planning: 2022-2028; 2027-2030; Base Construction: A Commercial Exercise
• Reasons:
  • Technology: testing advanced propulsion, materials development, radiation shielding techniques, longer duration tests environmental control and life support system tests
  • Discovery: Possibly new materials, solar system history and formation knowledge
  • Economy: We may discover elements and materials unknown to us previously that may allow for great improvements to life on Earth.
  • Economy: Proving techniques for landing on asteroids for eventual mining would be essential for commercial enterprises.
• Thoughts:
  • This would definitely be a good intermediate goal between the Moon and Mars to test capabilities and crew duration dynamics.

Mars:

• Time: Planning: 2022-2045; Sorties:2032-35ish; Base Construction 2035-2050
• Reasons:
  • Technology: human health , off Earth construction, off Earth mining, off Earth farming, insitu resource utilization, recycling, power, advanced propulsion technology, etc.
  • Discovery: hands on geology, search for life, new minerals, etc.
  • Survival & Economy: Human colonization will greatly improve humanity’s ability to survive this Universe, and a second planet will eventually provide another source of resources to sustain humanity.

• Thoughts:
  • Colonizing Mars successfully will be another step to make sure humanity survives to understand more of this Universe.
  • A concerted and sustained effort to reach Mars will take every aspect of todays economy and expand it in order to be successful.

Europa and Other Destinations:

• Time: Planning: 2035-????;Sorties: 2045-55; Base Construction begins 2055ish
• Reasons:
  • Survival,Economy, Technology, Discovery: Once we reach Mars, we can not stop. We must continually expand our knowledge and capability; thus, we need to continually set new goals as we accomplish old ones.
  • Discovery: Europa may have liquid water and possibly life under its surface. A scientific base to find out seems prudent.
• Thoughts:
  • At this time hopefully there will be another 50 year plan (at least) and a great many new technologies preparing to take humanity truly to the stars.

Further Thoughts on Space Exploration

I was once challenged to come up with an elevator speech, a 30 second talk, to ’sell’ human spaceflight. I have had a few paragraphs that attempted this grand task, but none have really felt ‘right’. How do you ’sell’ something that is so fundamental to the future of humanity? That touches every aspect of modern day life? That is so much bigger, so much more complex than anything humanity has encountered or challenged itself to in the entire history of humankind on Earth? And do it in 30 seconds? Do you talk about the basics, the challenge, the economic impact? The other potential benefits? Well, I didn’t go into sales, but I would like the chance to at least share my perspective as a young, inexperienced, but committed Aerospace Engineer.

First, let us again attempt to get in the right frame of mind.

Think about that grain, that single grain of sand on a long sandy beach.

Now think of the spec on that grain of sand, the micro-spec.

Again, take everything you’ve ever known, ever seen, everyone you’ve ever met and all your experiences and shrink them onto the spec, on that grain of sand, on that long sandy beach.

This is humanity’s current place in this Universe.

This is something we have measured and observed.

I find that thought mesmerizing in its ridiculousness. That we have accomplished so much but are so small is almost beyond imagination. Luckily, as we grow in our understanding, so to does our imagination.

So now that we have once again defined our frame of mind, what are we to think? Do we think about the sheer crushing reality of just how small and insignificant we are? Do we take comfort in the fact that we are representatives of ‘Life’ ? I say yes to both. We must keep our ego in check but also continue on, for I do not believe that any person is in a position to judge whether humanity should live or die. However, we are in a position to keep learning and growing.

It is with these thoughts that I reflected upon the current state of space exploration, specifically in the United States. In so doing I hope that I have at least given some thoughts to humanity at large, for I truly believe that we can accomplish these great tasks with hard work, determination, and commitment if we so choose.